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《经济学人》双语：日本首相辞职/政坛处于动荡之中
文/Irene-自由英语之路
【本篇内容简述】
【Para1】引入：日本菅义伟9月2日还在策划连任。后来突然变脸辞职了，让日本的政坛处于动荡之中。
【Para2】四位候选人：前外交部长岸田文雄，现任疫苗大臣河野太郎，前总务大臣高市早苗（女），前国防部长石破茂。
【Para3】影响：无论谁当选都不会有政策方面的根本性变化，如对美国，中国的态度，货币政策，疫情等。只是些微的不同。
【Para4&5】票选规则：河野先生目前名列榜首。然而，公众并不决定自民党的选举。第二轮选举，国会议员的选票将占据更大的权重。最终结果取决于幕后推诿和交易以及派系间的讨价还价。
【Para6】结尾与评论：安倍之前，日本六年六相。最后一句：在现阶段，不确定性是唯一的确定因素。
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标题：
Japanese politics
September surprise
Suga Yoshihide’s resignation heralds an era of uncertainty for Japan
日本政治
九月惊喜
菅义伟的辞职预示着日本将进入一个充满不确定性的时代
The ruling party’s next president will lead it into lower-house elections in November
执政党的下一任总裁将带领它参加11月的众议院选举
Paragraph 1：
SUGA YOSHIHIDE, Japan’s prime minister, had been plotting for his re-election as late as September 2nd. The next day, he emerged from a meeting with the other leaders of his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) looking crestfallen.
日本首相菅义伟早在9月2日还在策划连任。第二天，他与自民党其他领导人会面后，面色沮丧。
With his approval ratings wallowing and his support inside the party hollowing, he declared that he would not run in the party’s leadership race after all.
随着他的支持率不断下降，党内支持率不断下降，他宣布自己终究不会参加党内的领导权竞选。
Mr Suga’s about-face has left the LDP—and Japan’s political future—in flux. The party will vote for a new president on September 29th.
菅义伟的变脸让自民党和日本的政坛处于动荡之中。该党将于9月29日投票选举新总裁。
The winner will become prime minister and lead the LDP into lower-house elections that must be held by late November.
获胜者将成为首相，并带领自民党参加必须在11月下旬举行的众议院选举。
Paragraph 2:
Four contenders stand out so far: Kishida Fumio, a former foreign minister, has good relationships within the party, but limited popular support.
到目前为止，有四位候选人脱颖而出：前外交部长岸田文雄在党内关系良好，但民众支持率有限。
Kono Taro, a former foreign and defence minister and the current vaccine tsar, is social-media savvy, and, at 58, on the younger side by Japanese standards.
河野太郎，前外交和国防部长，现任疫苗大臣，精通社交媒体，58岁，按照日本的标准，他更年轻。
Though popular with the public, his reputation as a maverick puts off many in the party.
尽管他很受公众欢迎，但他特立独行的名声失去党内许多人的支持。
Takaichi Sanae, a former internal-affairs minister, has scant name recognition, but is a budding darling of the LDP’s right wing.
前总务大臣高市早苗乎没有什么知名度，但却是自民党右翼的新宠。
Ishiba Shigeru, a former defence minister, may enter the fray as well. He too has sizeable public support but little among colleagues.
前国防部长石破茂也可能加入这场争斗。他也获得了相当大的公众支持，但在同僚中支持率很低。
Paragraph 3:
None of the four represents radical change in policy terms. All are staunch supporters of the alliance with America, and favourshoring up Japan’s own defences in the face of China.
这四项都不代表政策方面的根本性变化。他们都是与美国结盟的坚定支持者，都中国的崛起有防御。
None will move to reverse the Bank of Japan’s loose monetary policy or to impose fiscal austerity.
没有人会采取行动扭转日本央行的宽松货币政策或实施财政紧缩。
There are subtle differences emerging over how exactly to handle relations with China, how loose to be with different forms of stimulus, how to shape Japan’s energy policy and how to manage the covid-19 pandemic.
在如何准确处理与中国的关系、对不同形式的刺激措施有多宽松、如何制定日本的能源政策以及如何应对新冠疫情等问题上，出现了微妙的分歧。
But the main faultlines are instead generational and presentational: between a predictable, old-style party man in Mr Kishida; the independent-minded, more charismatic Mr Kono; and a nationalist firebrand in Ms Takaichi.
但主要的断层线是代际性和代表性的：在岸田文雄的一个可预测的老派政党人物；思想独立、更有魅力的河野太郎先生；高市早苗女士是民族主义的煽动者。
Paragraph 4:
In public opinion polls Mr Kono comes out on top. Yet the public does not decide LDP elections.
在民意调查中，河野先生名列榜首。然而，公众并不决定自民党的选举。
The initial ballot combines the party’s 383 members of the Diet and another 383 votes that reflect the choices of the party’s 1.1m members.
最初的投票包括该党383名国会议员和另外383张反映该党110万名议员选择的选票。
If no candidate wins a majority, as is often the case, the top two move to a run-off in which Diet members’ votes have far more weight.
如果没有一位候选人赢得多数票，就像通常的情况一样，前两名将进入第二轮选举，在这轮选举中，国会议员的选票将占据更大的权重。
They tend to vote in blocs along factional lines, but this time around, younger MPs are chafing at the older faction bosses’ control.
他们倾向于按照派系进行分组投票，但这一次，年轻的议员们对老派系政客的控制感到恼火。
Paragraph 5:
The outcome of the race will depend on backroom wheeling and dealing and inter-factional horse-trading, but also on how worried the party’s leadership is about the looming Diet elections and on how much influence younger backbenchers, who prefer Mr Kono, can exert.
竞选的结果将取决于幕后推诿和交易以及派系间的讨价还价，但也取决于该党领导层对即将到来的国会选举的担忧程度，以及更喜欢河野先生的年轻后座议员能够发挥多大的影响力。
For the party’s old guard, Mr Kishida may seem a safer bet. Ms Takaichi, a regular visitor to the controversial Yasukuni Shrine, is attractive to those on the right.
对于该党的老保守派来说，岸田康夫似乎是一个更安全的赌注。高市早苗是备受争议的靖国神社的常客，对右翼人士很有吸引力。
Mr Ishiba could upend the race further by entering himself or explicitly backing one of the others.
石破茂可以通过加入自己或明确支持其他人中的一人来进一步颠覆这场竞赛。
Paragraph 6:
Before the eight-year premiership of Abe Shinzo, Mr Suga’s predecessor, Japan ran through six prime ministers in six years.
在菅义伟的前任安倍晋三担任首相八年之前，日本在六年内经历了六位首相。
There is a risk that Mr Suga’s resignation will precipitate a similar spell of turmoil. But it may also open the door to a new era.
菅义伟先生的辞职有可能引发类似的混乱。但这也可能是开启一个新时代的大门。
As Mr Suga’s abrupt resignation suggests, at this stage, uncertainty is the only certainty.
正如菅义伟突然辞职所表明的那样，在现阶段，不确定性是唯一的确定因素。
（恭喜读完本篇，英语词汇阅读量617左右）
原文出自2021年9月11日《The Economist》Asia版块，
精读笔记来源于：自由英语之路，仅供个人英语学习交流使用。
【重点词汇】（16个）
herald/herld/to be a sign that sth is going to happen.
v. 预示……的来临；宣布
crestfallen/krestfln/
adj. 垂头丧气的，气馁的
wallow/wl/
v. 打滚；沉迷n. 打滚；堕落
about-face/"baut,feis/=about-turn
n. （思想、态度、行为等）彻底改变；向后转
flux/flks/ If something is in a state of flux, it is constantly changing.
n. 不稳定；流出
tsar/zɑ(r)/
n. 沙皇（大权独揽的人物）
savvy/svi/
adj. 聪慧的；具有实际知识的
maverick/mvrk/
n. 特立独行者；持不同意见者
fray/fre/
n. 争论；打架；磨损处
staunch/stnt/
adj. 坚定的；忠诚的；坚固的
shore up
支持，支撑；加固
firebrand/fabrnd/a person who is always encouraging other people to take strong political action, often causing trouble.
n. 火把；煽动者；放火者
the Diet
国会
run-off
n. 决赛，决胜选举
blocs/blk/
n. 阵营，派系，集团
chafe at
发怒
【重点句子】（2个）
With his approval ratings wallowing and his support inside the party hollowing, he declared that he would not run in the party’s leadership race after all.
随着他的支持率不断下降，党内支持率不断下降，他宣布自己终究不会参加党内的领导权竞选。
At this stage, uncertainty is the only certainty.
现阶段，不确定性是唯一的确定因素。
【重点词根】（1+4个）
herald=her-军队 + -ald命令->预示……的来临；宣布
词根har-,her- 源自原始印欧语 *harjaz "army."表示“军队、战争”，如：
harbor/hɑb/ n. 港口, 避难所
harbinger/hɑbnd(r)/ n. 预告者, 先驱, 预兆
harangue/hr/ n. 长篇大论；高谈阔论；热烈的演说
harness/hɑns/ n. n. 马具；背带
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