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《经济学人》双语:在美国,谁最有可能和最不可能被注射疫苗?
文/Irene-自由英语之路
【本篇内容简述】
【Para1】引入:第四波新冠病毒感染正在席卷美国,德尔塔变种病毒更加可怕,可能会席卷全球。
【Para2】建立统计模型:《经济学人》与民意调查机构YouGov合作,每周收集关于大约2.4万美国人接种新冠病毒疫苗意愿的调查,建模,确定疫苗犹豫不决的原因。
【Para3&4】模型数据分析:投票给特朗普的影响是疫苗接种概率降低了13个百分点。拜登先生的支持者接受疫苗的可能性高18个百分点。其他因素:非洲裔美国人接受注射疫苗的可能性要低得多;西班牙裔和印度教更有可能接受疫苗。蓝州接受,红州犹豫。
【Para5】结尾与评论:新冠大流行的阶段,美国人对宣传打疫苗和疫苗广告已经司空见惯,效果不明显。应增加穷人和农村美国人,未受教育者接受疫苗的机会,如提供外展和信息宣传服务。
标题:
Attitudes to the vaccine
Hesitancy in numbers
Our statistical model highlights who’s most and least likely to get the shot
对疫苗的态度
数字上的犹豫
我们的统计模型突出了谁最有可能和最不可能被注射疫苗
原文日期:2021年7月31日
Paragraph 1:
A fourth wave of covid-19 infections is sweeping across America. It is strongest in the heartland and southern states: cases per 100,000 people are highest in Louisiana, Florida and Arkansas; Missouri has the highest hospitalisations.
第四波新冠病毒感染正在席卷美国。中心地带和南部各州的发病率最高:路易斯安那州、佛罗里达州和阿肯色州的每100000人发病率最高;密苏里州的住院率最高。
But the rapidly spreading Delta variant threatens other places, too. Since vaccinations have stalled at around155m adults, or 60% of the population aged 18 or over, few if any parts of the country have reached herd immunity. The new wave is likely to crash everywhere.
但迅速蔓延的德尔塔变种病毒也威胁着其他地方。由于大约1.55亿成年人(占18岁或以上人口的60%)的疫苗接种停滞,该国几乎没有任何地区达到群体免疫。这股新浪潮可能会席卷全球。
Paragraph 2:
Identifying the causes of vaccine hesitancy can help policymakers decide where to target their efforts. The Economist has collaborated with YouGov, a pollster, to collect weekly surveys on Americans’ intent to get vaccinated for covid-19.
确定疫苗犹豫不决的原因有助于决策者决定努力的方向。《经济学人》与民意调查机构YouGov合作,每周收集关于美国人接种新冠病毒疫苗意愿的调查。
Using the demographic profiles of some 24,000 Americans, we have built a statistical model to estimate how likely each respondent is to say they have received, or will get, their jab—and to reveal the biggest causes of hesitancy.
利用大约2.4万名美国人的人口统计资料,我们建立了一个统计模型,以估计每个受访者说他们已经或将要接受注射的可能性,并揭示犹豫的最大原因。
Paragraph 3:
According to our modelling, the single greatest predictor of whether an American has been vaccinated is whether they voted for Joe Biden or Donald Trump last November.
根据我们的模型,美国人是否接种疫苗的最大预测因素是他们去年11月是否投票给乔·拜登或唐纳德·特朗普。
Relative to the profile for the average American—a white, 49-year-old female with some college education who earns a middle-class income, lives in a Midwestern suburb and did not vote in 2020—the impact of voting for Mr Trump is a 13 percentage-point reduction in vaccine probability.
相对于普通美国人——一位受过大学教育的49岁白人女性,收入中产阶级,生活在中西部郊区,2020年没有投票——的情况,投票给特朗普的影响使疫苗接种概率降低了13个百分点。
Holding everything else equal, Mr Biden’s supporters were 18 points likelier to get their jabs. Whether someone was a self-proclaimed conservative or liberal ranked second.
在其他条件相同的情况下,拜登先生的支持者接受疫苗的可能性高18个百分点。无论他是自称是保守派还是自由派,这个因素排名第二。
Paragraph 4:
But many other factors also matter. African-Americans were disproportionately less likely than other racial and ethnic groups to receive their shots; Hispanics and Hindus were more likely to do so.
但许多其他因素也很重要。与其他种族和族裔群体相比,非洲裔美国人接受注射疫苗的可能性要低得多;西班牙裔和印度教更有可能接受疫苗。
Geographic factors mostly cut along expected lines: people in blue-state cities were likelier to get a vaccine, those in rural, redder regions were disproportionately hesitant.
地理因素主要与预期相符:蓝州的人更有可能接种疫苗,而农村、红州的人则格外犹豫。
Paragraph 5:
Prominent conservative television hosts, such as Fox News’s Sean Hannity, made a spectacle of endorsing the covid-19 vaccine last week.
著名的保守派电视主持人,如福克斯新闻的肖恩·汉尼蒂,上周大张旗鼓地支持了新冠疫苗。
Yet according to YouGov’s most recent poll, conducted on July 24th-27th, the share of Republican adults who say they will not get the jab has held steady at 30%. The phase of the pandemic where Americans would listen to such messaging might well be over.
然而,根据YouGov在7月24日至27日进行的最新民意调查,表示不会接受注射的共和党成年人比例稳定在30%。新冠大流行的阶段,美国人对于听到这样的信息,很可能已司空见惯。
After all, they have been seeing adverts about jabs for months. Instead of focusing on partisans, public-health policy could be designed to increase access for poor and rural Americans, and focus on outreach and information-dissemination for the uneducated.
毕竟,他们几个月来一直在看有关疫苗的广告。公共卫生政策不应只专注于各党派支持者,还为增加穷人和农村美国人的机会,重点是为未受教育者提供外展和信息宣传服务。
(恭喜读完本篇,英语阅读量442左右)
【重点词汇】(9个)
stall /stl/If a process stalls, or if someone or something stalls it, the process stops but may continue at a later time.
v. 暂停;熄火;拖延(以赢得时间)
partisan/pɑtzn/an adherent or devotee of a cause, party.
n. 事业或党派的追随者
outreach/atrit/the activity of an organization that provides a service or advice to people in the community, especially those who cannot or are unlikely to come to an office, a hospital, etc. for help.
n. 外展服务,扩大范围的服务;主动帮助
本文“打疫苗”相关英语汇总:
get the shot
get vaccinated
get their jabs
be vaccinated
receive their shots
get a vaccine
【重点句子】(2个)
A fourth wave of covid-19 infections is sweeping across America.
第四波新冠病毒感染正在席卷美国。
Holding everything else equal. But many other factors also matter.
在其他条件相同的情况下。但许多其他因素也很重要。
【词源故事】(1个)(来源于Qian)
install(安装):神职人员在圣座就坐以示就职。在基督教堂的唱诗班或高坛位置常常有一个半封闭区域,里面摆放有一张座位,只有高级神职人员才有资格进入该区域就坐,这个区域就被称为stall(圣座)。当教会任命神职人员时,新任命者将进入stall就坐以示就职,这个过程就是install,字面意思就是“进入stall”,引申为将某人安排到某个职位上。后来,install的宗教色彩消失,可以用来表示各种任命。现在,install不仅可以表示将某人安排到某职位上,还可以表示将某物安排到某位置上,即“安装”的意思。
install:[n"stl] vt. 安装;任命;安顿
installation:["nst"len] n. 安装,装置;就职
stall:[stl] n. 货摊;畜栏;(教堂)圣座v. 暂停;熄火;拖延(以赢得时间)
【本篇读后感】
本文运用数学建模,这有助于为决策者决策提供方向。数学建立模型是一个很好的解决问题的探究方式,我记得上大学时,高等数学老师就提倡大家多参加建模比赛,然而我没有参加,因为我去学英语去了。数学建模应用很广,作用很大:有利于分析与设计,预报和决策,控制和优化,规划与管理等作用。在经济,人口,生态,地质等领域有渗透。一些交叉学科如计量经济学,人口控制论,数学生态学,数学地质学等学科的兴起。马克思曾经说过:一门科学只有成功地运用数学是才算达到了真正完善的地步。
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