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昨天上午开幕的2019世界人工智能大会上，联合国数字合作高级别小组联合主席马云和特斯拉公司联合创始人兼首席执行官埃隆马斯克，上演高端对话。
双方“华山论剑”，到底碰撞出了多少思维的火花？以下为“双马对话”全文实录。
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中文版全文实录——
主持人：欢迎两位，非常高兴你们出席今天的会议，大家都很期待这次对话。大屏幕上会打一些关键词，请你们直接点一下你们感兴趣的关键词进行对话。
关键词：AI
马斯克：说说AI吧。在中文里AI是不是指的是“爱”这个意思？
Elon:Actually, I"m told that, does AI mean love? Like is that a name?
马云：我不喜欢AI被称为人工智能，我称它为阿里巴巴智能。
Jack:Yeah, I hatethe word AI called "artificial intelligence". I call it Alibaba Intelligence!
马斯克：我也这么感觉。一般大家都会低估人工智能的能力，他们觉得可能就像是聪明的人而已。实际上，人工智能比这个厉害得多，可能比最聪明的人还要聪明。
我看到AI研究人员犯的最大错误就是假定他们很聪明，实际上和AI相比不见得如此，他们觉得机器不会比人聪明，实际上机器很有可能比人聪明得多。面对这个状况我们应该做什么呢？我也不知道，我也不确定，我希望AI会是好东西。
有一句老话，如果打不过他们就和他们组成团队吧。我所开发的公司就是这样，目的就是让我们加入到AI战队里面。现在我们已经和手机、电脑连在一块了，我们已经成为带有机器特征的人了，机器在你生命相当于你生命的延伸，你离开了手机像少了一个手臂。
与人的思维速度相比，现在的人工智能太慢了。假定一个计算机多几个服务点的计算能力，每个毫秒在计算机来说是极大进步，对于我们来说这不算什么。理解人类的自然语言对于计算机来说非常短，像鲸鱼在发的声音，每秒钟最多一百个字节左右的信息对于电脑来说太短太慢了。计算机可以超过你几十万倍数字通量的方式进行对话，计算机看人一定会觉得特别无聊，仿佛看着人就觉得无聊的人类。这是我想说的人和计算机的差别。
Elon:Yeah, that might end up being true. You never know. I think, generally, people underestimate the capability of AI. They sort of think that it"s a smart human. But it"s really much, much more than that. It will be much smarter than the smartest human. It will be like, can a chimpanzee really understand humans? Not really, you know. We just seem like strange aliens. They mostly just care about other chimpanzees. This will be how it is, more or less, in a relative -- in fact, if the difference is only that small, that would be amazing. Probably it"s much, much greater.
The biggest mistake that I see artificial intelligence researchers making is assuming that they"re intelligent. They"re not, compared to AI. So like, a lot of them cannot imagine something smarter than themselves, but AI will be vastly smarter. Vastly. So what do you do with a situation like that? I"m not sure, you know. But I hope they"re nice. I mean I have, obviously, some...
I think, in a situation where, if you know the old saying "If you can"t beat em", join em"", you know that"s what Neurolink is about. Can we go along for the ride with AI? I mean, I really think that there should be other companies like Neurolink essentially to create a high bandwidth interface to the brain. Right now we are already a cyborg, people don"t realize we are already a cyborg because we are so well integrated with our phones and our computers. The phone is almost like an extension of yourself. If you forget your phone, it"s like a missing limb.
But the bandwidth, the communication bandwidth of the phone is very low, especially input. So, in fact, input bandwidth to your computer has actually gone down because of typing with two thumbs as opposed to ten fingers is a bit reduction in bandwidth. Input bandwidth has gone up because of video and imagery.
So input bandwidth is many orders of magnitude greater than output bandwidth, but at a certain point, if... assuming that benign scenario with AI, we will just be too slow, you know. It"s like if, to something, let"s say a computer that has like an exoflop of, many exoflops of computer capability, a millisecond is an eternity and to us it"s nothing. So, you know, I always think like human speech, to a computer, will sound like very slow, tonal wheezing. It"s kind of like whale sounds. What"s our bandwidth, like a few hundred bits per second, basically. Maybe a very kilobits per second if you"re going to be generous. So, whereas a computer can easily communicate at a terabit level. So, the computer will just get impatient, if nothing else. It would be like talking to a tree, that"s humans. Barely getting any information out of it, basically, with speech.
马云：我特别惊讶于你对于科技的愿景。我不是搞高科技的人，我是讲生活的，我觉得AI能够给全世界，给社会打开一个新的篇章，让大家更好的理解自己，而不是完全理解外部的世界。
今天要预测未来很难，特别难。99.9%的预测都是错的，只有0.001%的预测是对的。为什么对呢？那是运气好，很多情况80%的数据是错的。
对于人工智能，对于阿里巴巴的智能，我跟高兴它们能够更好的理解人类的本质。很多人担心人工智能，他们需要对自己有更多的自信。今天很多问题没有解决方案，但是未来会有，青年人会有解决方案。我很乐观，我不觉得AI是一种威胁，我不认为人工智能是很恐怖的东西，因为人类很聪明。我觉得AI很好很有意思，我们会拥抱它。
Jack:Yeah, I"m almost amazed by what your vision of the technology. I"m not a tech guy, I think I"m all about life. I think AI is going to open a new chapter of the society of the world that people try to understand ourselves better, rather than the outside world.
And, it"s so difficult to predict the future. 99.99% of the predictions that human beings have about the history about the future, all wrong.
I"m happy about the artificial intelligence, or the Alibaba intelligence, that"s going to understand the inside of the human better. So, when people worry a lot about artificial intelligence, people should have more confidence in themselves, because I think, if a lot of solutions we don"t have today, but there will be solutions tomorrow. We don"t have solutions, but the young people will have solutions. So I"m quite optimistic, and I don"t think artificial intelligence is a threat, I don"t think AI is something terrible, but human beings are smart enough to learn that. And to me, Artificial Intelligence is just like, people worry a lot about this today are those people I call them, called... college smartness. People like us, street smart, we"re never scared of that, we think it"s a great fun and we want to change ourselves to embrace it.
马斯克：告诉大家一个事实，现在电脑进步的速度是惊人的。比如玩电子游戏，往前看40年50年，可能你会有两个方块的单机游戏，但是现在可以很多人在一个游戏平台上一起打游戏，进步巨大。越来越多的游戏做得越来越真实。科技在未来仍然会有非常巨大的发展。
人类文明有7000年历史，这个人类文明史从文明角度来看高低起伏非常厉害。我不是个天然的乐观或者悲观的人，但未来科技发展将会超越我们理解它的能力。我不知道这样是好事还是坏事。
Elon:I dunno man, it"s like famous last words. Let me tell you, AI is, I mean, if you look at the rate of advancement of computers is insane. A good example would be video games. If you go back 40 years ago, 50 years ago maybe, you have Pong. That was just rectangles and a square. Now you"ve got photo realistic, real-time simulations with millions of people playing simultaneously. If you assume any rate of improvement at all, the games will be indistinguishable from reality. You will not be able to tell the difference. Either that or civilization will end. Those are the two options. But even if the rate of technology improvement slowed down by a thousand, okay advance a thousand years, or 10,000 years, this is still very tiny.
Civilization has been around for, probably, you know arguably 7,000 years or something like that, if you count it from the first time there was any writing, any recorded symbols, besides cave paintings. That"s a very tiny amount of time, considering the universe is 13.8 billion years old. I mean, if civilization lasted for only a million years, we would only increment the third decimal point after 13.8 billion years, if we lasted for a million years. So, that seems like a long time, given that we"ve only been around for 7 thousand years. It"s been kind of a roller coaster on the civilization front. So, I mean I"m not trying to be, I"m a naturally optimistic person to be clear, I"m not saying you know, doom and gloom. I"m just saying, this is the apparent pattern, the rate of change of technology is incredibly fast. It is outpacing our ability to understand it. Is that good or bad, I don"t know. I mean it seemed to me, some time ago, that you could sort of think of humanity as a biological bootloader for biological super-intelligence. If, for those who know what a bootloader is, a very tiny piece of code without which the computer cannot start. It"s sort of like the minimal bit of code necessary for a computer to start. Like, you couldn"t involve silicon circuits, they needed to be biology to get there.
关键词：火星
马云：点一下火星的关键词，听说你要去火星？我对火星没有兴趣，我刚从火星回来。我对地球上发生的一切更感兴趣，为什么大家对火星这么好奇。
Jack:Good. Well let"s talk about something fun, I admire, that you want to go on the Mars. Go to the Mars? Yeah, so, what will the life look like on Mars? Are you both moving? What do you think about that? Actually I"m not interested in Mars, I just came back from there so. I"m more interested on the Earth, the things what"s going to happening here. So why are you so curious about the Mars?
马斯克：对于火星，我们需要采取行动。我没有考虑过外星人。外星人在哪里，这是一个问题。为什么没有找到外星人，有些人找到外星人，说去过51区吗？我说别开玩笑了，有外星人我一定知道。
我觉得我们需要更进一步了解宇宙的本质，以确保我们能够进入到不同的行星生活。这并不是因为我觉得地球没有希望了，但毕竟存在这种可能，即使我们尽了最大的努力，地球还是有可能会发生人类无法控制的事情，外部力量或者内部事物导致文明被毁灭或者我们受到足够的威胁以至于我们只能搬到另外一个星球去生活。
换句话说，地球45亿的生活当中，现在第一次有可能让生命离开地球生活，之前是没有可能的。但是这个机会窗口会有多久，长或者短都有可能。假定机会窗口不长，我们需要尽快抓住机会窗口。这是我的观点。
Elon:Well, I think the thing about Mars is that, I think it"s important for us to take the set of actions that are most likely to continue consciousness into the future. What increases the probability of consciousness, of continuing into the future. I think we should not take it for granted that consciousness will continue, because we have no encountered any aliens. Where are the aliens? This is the Fermi Paradox. This is one of the most important questions: How come we"ve not found any aliens? There"s people out there that think we"ve found aliens. Trust me, I would know, we have not, okay? People ask me: Have you been to Area 51? Okay, please. SpaceX actually has Area 59, it"s even better, eight better than 51.
So, among the set of actions we can take that are likely to increase the scope and scale of consciousness such that we are better able to understand the nature of the universe.One of those actions is to become a multi-planet species, or ensure that life is multi-planetary. Not because I think, it"s not from the standpoint of just being an escape hatch or because I think that Earth is doomed, but there is a certain probability, that is irreducible, that something may happen to Earth, despite our best intentions, despite everything we try to do, that there"s a probability at a certain point that some, either external force or some internal unforced error causes civilization to be destroyed. Or sufficiently impaired such that it can no longer extend to another planet.
It"s hard to say, let me put it another way: this is the first time in the four and a half billion year history of Earth, that it"s been possible to extend life beyond Earth. Before this it was not possible. How long will this window be open? It may be open for a long time, or it may be open for a short time. I think it would be wise to assume that it is open for a short time, and let us secure the future of consciousness such that the light of consciousness is not extinguished. And we should try to do this as quickly as possible. That"s my view.
马云：抓住地球的未来，没有那么容易。但是未来的一百年我们要尽可能做好。我很钦佩你开发火星的勇气，我身边有很多人在尽力提升现有地球的发展。要把100万人送到火星很好，但是我们要关心74亿地球人的发展，让地球更可持续发展，我不是火星的粉丝，就像爬到山顶往下再走一步就去火星了，但是回不来了。我感觉去火星就是回不来的感觉，别那么做。
我也不喜欢爬喜马拉雅山，有一天如果有电梯的话，我希望能够坐上电梯到喜马拉雅顶上看看。大家在地球花非常多的时间，不管人类文明多久，一百万年，五十万年，但是每个人在地球上最多一百年的生命，我们不可能把未来所有问题都解决，但是我们必须对未来负责。我们要很关注现在的生活怎么能够更好。如果通过AI、通过人工智能，人类能更好理解自己的话，我们就可以更好地提升世界。
过去的200年，人类希望能够更好的理解其他人，但是我对AI感兴趣的一点，因为AI可以让你更好的理解自己，更好理解人类的本质。我听说你要在地球内部往下挖，这个想法很好。我们需要对外部空间保持兴趣，也需要在地球上努力工作提升我们的生活。这是我想要的。
Jack:It"s so difficult to secure the future of the Earth but we can secure the future of the next 100 years. I"m not a person that, I admire your courage for exploring the Mars, but I admire a lot of people spend efforts on improving the Earth. It"s great to send one million people to the Mars, but we have to care about the 7.4 billion people on the Earth. How can we make the world more sustainable? And I"m not that fond of the Mars because I think it"s easy to go to the Mars when you go on the top of the hills or of the building, just one step you go to Mars. We will never be able to come back, so that"s my view.
And, so... also, I hate to go to the Himalayas when you climb on it. I think something, when it is ready I will go there to look. But, I think people spending more time on the Earth think about, no matter how long the civilization of the human beings will be, like one million or two million of half million years, we only have 100 years. So, we cannot solve all the problems for future but we have to be responsible for the future, but we should care more about how we can enjoy better. My view is that by the AI, when human beings understand ourselves better then we can improve the world better.
Last 200 years, human beings tried to understand the outside world better, understand the other people better, but I think what I feel excited about AI is that AI is to understand people. The inside of the human beings, the Earth I heard you got to dig a tunnel deep in the Earth which is amazing. I think, anyhow, every time when I read the news about you are interested in the outside space, I look at you with great respect. We need a hero like you but we need more heroes like us working hard on the Earth, improving things every day. That"s what I want.
马斯克：我也是支持地球的。但有一天当人类成为多星球生存的生物时，人类社会将有可能实现超越地球的更大发展。从资源的角度说，这世界只需要使用大概最多1%的资源用来研发去实现多星球生活，并不需要太多投入。我觉得这是针对未来比较明智的一个投资。
比如用特斯拉新能源电动车，用电池、太阳能作为动力解决方案，可以部分解决能源的可持续发展问题。我很激动特斯拉能来到上海，特斯拉（中国）团队做得非常棒，上海的超级工厂非常令人震撼。我很惊喜特斯拉在上海取得的巨大进步，全世界都看到了一个好的案例，一个创新企业在中国可以取得多好的进展，这是非常令人称羡的，我向大家致敬，你们太棒了。之前我在其他地方没有看到过这样快速的发展，中国就是未来，未来是非常令人激动的。
中国的创业企业发展速度像火箭一般，他们已经进入轨道了。我很尊重这样的创新型的“火箭企业”。
Elon:Sure, I mean to be clear, I"m very pro-Earth. When I say us becoming a multi-planet species, or making life multi-, extending life beyond Earth, expanding the scope of scale of consciousness, from a resource standpoint I"m talking about less than 1% of Earth"s resources should be dedicated to making life multi-planetary or making consciousness multi-planetary. I think it should be, like, somewhere in between how much we spend on lipstick and how much we spend on healthcare. For the preservation of consciousness we should spend maybe slightly more than we spend on cosmetics. I"m pro-cosmetics, but you know, there"s probably worth spending at least half a percent of Earth"s GDP on extending life to be multi-planetary. Maybe 1%, I"d say, seems like a good use of resources. But, you have like more resources spent on Earth, so it"s not like it"s, you know, somehow gonna fundamentally impair Earth. If just 1% of Earth resources, on that order, should be enough to make like multi-planetary. It seems like a wise investment for the future.
Obviously I spend a lot of my time on sustainable energy with Tesla, with electric cars and solar batteries and that kind of thing, and I"m really excited to be here in Shanghai for the Shanghai gigafactory, which is, I think, the Tesla China team has done an amazing job, really mind-blowing. I"m just astounded by how quick the job is and how much progress has been made, and I think it"s a good story for the world to see like look, look how much progress you can make in China. This is extremely impressive, my hat is off you know, you guys rock so. I"ve never seen so many people so fast in my life before. I"ve seen some crazy things so, I really think China"s future looks very impressive and there"s also some great progress on entrepreneurial rocket companies in China as well, and I believe two have made orbit.
It"s very hard to make orbit, achieving orbit: I have great respect. This is very hard.
关键词：就业
马云：再选一个话题，就业、生命选一个。
Jack:Pick up another topic?
马斯克：可以。
Elon:Sure.
马云：就业吧。人工智能将为我们创造什么新工作，或者这种改变已经开始了？对此你怎么看？实际上人们所担心每一个技术的革新，过去100年我们一直担心新技术将会带走就业机会，实际上我们创造了很多就业机会。
未来20-30年里面，大家寿命会更长，生命科学技术可以让我们活100年或者120年，甚至祖祖父还在努力地工作，但这不一定是好事。为什么要有那么多工作？我觉得一周工作3天，一天工作4小时很好了。
我们有电，电让大家有更多的时间，晚上可以去唱唱歌，跳跳舞。有了人工智能之后，人们会有更多的时间去享受作为人的乐趣。我大概去过300多个不同的城市，我父亲可能去过30个城市，我爷爷最多去过3个城市。我的孙辈可能去过3000个城市，可以坐特斯拉去，可以一直在路上，一直在旅行。我觉得我们不需要太多工作，今后我们需要的工作就是让大家开心，让大家快乐，让大家体验生活，享受人类的生活。
我不会太担心工作。首先我们会有很多工作，第二点我们不需要很多的工作，第三很有意思的一点，农业时代大家平均寿命大概30或者35岁，工业时代有了技术革命之后，人们可以活到70岁，在人工智能时代，人们可能会活到100年，这是我的猜测。现在有一个问题，人们生活越来越好的时候，就不想生孩子了。我们会有很多工作但是没有人想去做，我们需要人工智能和机器人来照顾老年人。你不一定会因此很开心，因为当你爷爷的爷爷说“我明天还要上班”，这实际上是一种灾难。
我们没有办法预测未来，但是我们应该做好准备：我们将进入这样的时代，每个人能活120岁，会有很多新的问题，这是我的看法。
Jack:Jobs. So what new jobs will be created because of AI, or has the change already started? What do you think? I think, why we need that many jobs? My view is that the jobs actually, every technological revolution people start to worry. The last 200 years we worried about new technology gonna take away all the jobs. Actually, we made a lot of jobs. Second, because of the industrial revolution, jobs created a lot of jobs.
What I think is the next 20-30 years, human beings will live much longer, the life science technology is gonna make people live probably 100 - 120 years. That may not be a good thing because you"ve got your grandfather"s grandfather still working hard. But the challenge is, why should we have a lot of jobs? I think people should work three days a week, four hours a day.
When we have electricity, the power of electricity is that we made people more time, so you could go to the karaoke in the evening, you could go to the dancing party in the evening. So people, because of electricity, people have more time. I think, because of AI, people will have more time enjoying being human beings. In your life, in my life, I think I"ve visited probably 300 cities in my life. My father visited 30 cities, my grandfather visited only three cities, so my grandchildren probably will visit 3,000 cities. He"s always on the Tesla. He"s always on the roads, always traveling around. So I don"t think we need a lot of jobs, at that time the jobs we need is make people happier, make people experience their lives, enjoy the human beings, so I don"t worry about the jobs a lot.
First, we"re gonna have enough jobs. Second, we don"t need a lot of jobs. Third, there"s a very interesting thing, because we will probably talk about life: in the agriculture period, the average age was like 30/35 years old. In the industrial period, technological revolution, people can live 70 years. So in the artificial intelligence period, people can live 120 years, I think. Now the problem comes, when people"s lives are getting better, people don"t want to have children. When grand-grandfather is there you don"t wanna have children. At that time we are gonna have a lot of jobs with nobody wanna do it, so we need AI to take care of the old guys for sure. You will not be happy, or you will happy, because when your grand-grandfather says "Oh I need to work tomorrow" then that"s a disaster.
So, I think we cannot predict the future but we should be ready that we are going to enter into the era that everyone can live 120 years, and we have new, more new problems that come up. So that"s my view about jobs, don"t worry about it, we will have jobs.
马斯克：是的。今后人工智能会使得工作失去意义，可能最后的工作就是写AI软件，最终可能AI自己都会写软件了，所以我建议大家去学工程、物理或者做一些和人互动的工作。当然还有艺术。我们还要思考一下神经连接的问题，不然的话我们就要落后了。我们一定要尽快做这个工作，我们所剩的时间也不多了。
Elon:Yeah. I think, over time AI will make jobs kind of pointless, probably the last job that will remain will be writing AI software and then eventually the AI will just write its own software. So I dunno, I suppose I"d recommend studying engineering, physics, that kind of thing, or working on something where people just want to interact with other people. People enjoy, fundamentally, interacting with other people so if you"re working on something that involves people or engineering, it"s probably a good approach. Art, of course. Like I said, I think we"re going to have to figure out this Neurolink situation otherwise we will be left behind. It"s very important we do this quickly, I think time, we don"t have much time.
If you think of like, technology and technology awareness, there"s like, it"s like, if there was like a topological mode of technology awareness, there"s mostly flat with a few short buildings and then some very tall spires, very tall spires. And unless you"re on that very tall spire, it"s not obvious what the topology is.
马云：我从来不担心自己解决不了的问题，我让别人解决，如果没有人解决就让它去吧。
Jack:Yeah, I never worry about the things that I cannot solve. I let other people solve it. If nobody can solve it, just let it be. That"s my life.
关键词：教育
马云：我对教育很感兴趣，讲一下教育吧。“未来要我们掌握哪些知识或者技能，从而有助于我们获得更多的优势？对于年轻想要从事人工智能的年轻人你有什么建议吗？”
我认为在未来不会有人工智能的专业人士。人们经常担心工作，我担心的是教育。所有的教育体系给孩子教的东西，教的方式主要是为工业时代所设计的，我相信机器会更加聪明，会比人在未来聪明很多。人怎么能够做得更好，怎么变得更智慧更聪明呢？我们应该改变教育方式，改变教的内容。
过去我们专注的都是记忆，但计算机可以比你记得更好，算得更快，你想要跑得更快，但机器可以跑得比你更快。人类要更有创意，更有建设性，怎么教孩子有更多的创意、更有建设性呢？我觉得这是教育的关键。
我们可以花更多时间来训练培训孩子去学艺术，学画画，学跳舞，这些都是创意的事情。我们要理解一点，人从来没有办法制造一个人。计算机就是机器，机器就是一个玩具。我们要有信心，机器只有芯片，而我们有我们的心，我们的心是智慧的来源。所以接下来的10年、20年，各个国家、政府应该去改革教育体系来确保孩子能够在未来找到工作，在今后每周只工作3天，每天工作4个小时，这是非常重要的。
Jack:Let"s talk about education, I"m quite interested about the education. So, what knowledge or skills will be useful to master the future? Do you have any advice for young professionals who want to pursue a career in AI?
Young professionals. I don"t think we will have professional of AI in the future. Well, I worry a lot about, people worry about jobs but I worry about education. All the education systems, the things we teach our kids, the way we teach our kids, are mainly designed for the industrial period. And I"m sure the machine will be much more clever than human beings in the future. How can human beings do better? Human beings should be smarter, human beings should be wiser. So, how can we be human beings to be wiser or smarter? I think that we should change the way of education, change the things.
Because in the past we focused a lot about remember things, computer can remember better than you can. Want to calculate it faster? Computer can calculate faster. We want to run faster? Computer can run much faster than you are. So if human beings can have confidence, by being more creative, more constructive, so how can we teach our kids to be more creative, constructive? And I think this is the key of the education.
And I want spending more time on training kids on arts, on painting, on singing, on dancing. You know, all these are the creative things that make people live like humans. Don"t worry about machines. For sure we should understand one thing: That man can never make another man. Computer is a computer, computer is just a toy. Man cannot even make a mosquito so we should have confidence. Computer have chips, man have the heart. It"s the heart where the wisdom comes from, so I think in the next ten or twenty years, human beings from every country, every government should focus on reform the education system, making sure our kids be able to find a jobs in the future. Being able to live the life that only working three days a week, four hours a day and that is very important. If we do not change the education system that we are in, we are all going to be in trouble. That"s my view, and don"t worry about it: we will change it.
马斯克：是的。要尽可能多地多学一点，让自己能够更好地预测未来、创造未来。预测未来最好的方法就是去创造未来。我们要评估一下自己在学的东西，是不是能够让自己预测未来，让自己减少错误？我们可以通过这个方式来思考教育。
说到神经连接，我们可以把任何东西进行上传，任何技能都可以即刻上传。现在的教育是带宽很低非常慢的，讲课是最糟糕的。预测未来时，我们要犯更少的错也是很难的，并不一定99%是错，但是我们经常错得很多。但是我们还是要去尝试，不尝试不行，要去尝试、去调整，根据之前预测的错误做调整。
Elon:I would say, try to learn as much as possible that allows you to predict the future, or make the future. As the saying goes: The best way to predict the future is to make it. And then assess whether what you"re learning is enabling you to predict the future with less error, are you less wrong? We are always wrong, to a certain degree, but can you reduce the error on your future predictions? I think that"s the way to look at education.
Of course, if it was both creative, create the future and predict the future. So that includes art and all those other things. But close the loop on being less wrong about the future, I would say that"s the right way to think about education. I mean, down the road with Neurolink you could just upload any subject instantly, so it would be like the Matrix. You wanna fly a helicopter? No problem. Well, helicopters will fly themselves but, you know, if you wanted to do whatever, any given skill, you just upload it instantly. The way education works now, it"s extremely low bandwidth, it"s extremely slow. Lectures are the worst, really. Yeah. Try to predict the future with less error, this is very hard. As you were saying, I"m not sure it"s 99.9% but it"s not very good, generally, our prediction of the future, but I think often people don"t try. The first thing is, try. If you don"t try, hey, you know, you gotta try and then adjust based on the error of your predictions.
马云：是的，去尝试很好，我们要永远有信心在未来做尝试。错误可以说是人类最好的资产、最好的财富，人们担心人工智能灾难的时候，我觉得这并不是灾难或者人类犯的错，我们要相信人类是能够改善错误，改善自己的。这就需要教育。
今天在中国每年都有大量婴儿出生，这还不够，我们需要更多。地球上最早的资源并不是煤炭、石油、电力，而是人类的大脑，怎么让人类大脑更有创意、更有建设性呢？怎么确保机器永远是人类的玩具和工具，而不是控制我们呢？在我这一辈子当中尤其过去两年，大家经常谈人工智能，说人类会被机器控制，我从来不想这些问题，因为这是不可能的。因为人是不一样的，机器是人类发明的。根据科学，人从来无法创造一个比自己更聪明的动物，在这里有很多聪明人，但我们还是没有办法创造一个更聪明的人。
Jack:I think just to try is very good. We should always have the confidence to try the future, and I never worry about the errors and the mistakes. Errors are mistakes are the best assets of human lives, and humans, I think, people worry about the disasters that AI is going to bring, I think it"s not the disasters, it"s the mistakes that human beings make. And trust, human beings will be able to correct the mistakes and improve themselves. That, we need education, and this is what we think.
In China today, we have 1,800 new babies born every year, which is not enough. We need to have like much more than that, but I think the best resources of the human beings, or the best resources on the Earth, are not the coals, not the oil, not the electricity, it"s the human brain. How can we make the human brain more creative, constructive? How can we make sure that the machines are always the toys and tools or humans, rather than control. So, I never in my life, and especially in the last two years when people talk about AI say human beings will be controlled by machines, I never think about it. I think it"s impossible, right. It"s impossible, because human beings, they are different. Machines, they are invented by human beings, and according to the science, humans can never create another animal that is smarter than humans, especially when you have so many smart people. It"s impossible to make another smart people.
马斯克：我非常不同意你的看法。
Elon:I very much disagree with that.
马云：这非常好。
Jack:Okay. That"s good.
马斯克：我们可以创造比我们更聪明的东西，他们并不一定要是人。最早的文明是非常原始的，当时没有任何技术，只是跑来跑去，不要被别人吃掉，想要生存下来。现在我们有取暖，有很多的食物，这些都是新的东西。我们比过去聪明了很多很多，这会继续下去，并不是最后的革命。像你说的，聪明人犯的最严重的错误就是自以为聪明。
Elon:I mean, the first thing we should assume is that we are bred out, and we can definitely make things smarter than ourselves. There didn"t used to be humans, our earliest civilizations were very primitive. We didn"t have any technology really, we were just like running around trying to not get eaten, or trying to just survive over winter. Now we have like heating and we grow food, this is all new stuff so, you know, things have obviously gotten way more smarter than the past. Way smarter. So, that"s going to continue, we are not the last step in evolution so, the most important mistake I see smart people making is assuming that they are smart. They"re not.
马云：你举一个例子，哪个人类创造的东西比人更聪明？
Jack:Yeah so, give me example what animals or things that a human being made that is smarter than human beings.
马斯克：计算机已经在很多方面比人更聪明了，我们的目标在变得更高。比如过去下棋是聪明人才会下的，现在你的手机就可以下棋打败世界冠军。围棋以前大家觉得人比电脑强，但是李世石被阿尔法go 4：1打败了，阿尔法 zero 100：0打败了阿尔法go。人们和计算机下围棋像你和宙斯斗争一样没有希望的，我们差太远了。人类智力的追求在越来越少的方面比计算机好，每个方面以后会被计算机越来越多的超越，这是肯定的，或者文明能够取胜，这是两个可能。
Elon:Well, computers are already much smarter than people on so many dimensions, we just keep moving the goal posts. We used to think, like for example, being good at chess was an example of a smart human. And then Kasparovwas crushed by Deep Blue in "97. That was a long time ago, 22 years. I mean, right now your cellphone could crush the world champion at chess, literally. Go! used to be thought of as something that humans were better at than computers, then Lee Sedol was beaten 4:1 by AlphaGo. Then there"s Alpha Zero, Alpha Zero crushed AlphaGo 100:0. Now it"s just pointless because it just keeps playing itself. Trying to play a computer at Go! is like trying to fight Zeus: it"s not going to work, we are hopelessly inadequate. In terms of rendering, basically there"s just a smaller and smaller corner of intellectual pursuits that humans are better than computers and every year that gets smaller and smaller and soon we will be far, far surpassed in every single way. Guaranteed. Or civilization will end, those are the two possibilities.
马云：计算机可能更聪明，但是人类要有更多的智慧。聪明是学术驱动的，但是智慧是经验驱动的。计算机很聪明，但是是人类发明了计算机，我从来没有看到计算机发明一个人。
第二点，说到围棋和下棋。和计算机下棋这很愚蠢，像100年前人们创造了机器，人们说我可以比汽车跑得快这是不可能的，只有傻子才会去和汽车去赛跑。围棋是为人类设计的，让人和人下棋的。棋是让人和人下的，为什么人要和计算机下棋呢？我从来不下棋，不和计算机下围棋。很高兴看两个计算机下棋，但是我对于和计算机下棋没有兴趣。有些人很悲伤说计算机比人聪明，计算机下棋下得更好，我觉得和计算机下棋很傻，不要这样做，我们要做我们擅长的事情。
Jack:Okay, yeah. My view is that computer may be clever, but human beings are much smarter.Clever is very academic, is knowledge-driven. Smarter is experience-driven. Computer is clever, but it"s human being, we invented the computer. I never see a computer invented a human being. This is my first point.
Second point is that about Go! and playing chess. It"s stupid to compete with a computer and play Go! Just like a hundred years ago, when human being created cars, so human being said: I can run faster than a car. It"s impossible, it"s only stupid people to compete with a car to run faster. Go! is designed for human to play with human, right? The chess is designed for human to human. Why should a human to fight against a computer? So, I never played chess or Go! with computer. I"ll be happy to see two computers fight each other, I"m not interested in play Go! with chess. So I told those guys they are very sad, oh computer will be smart with human beings because computer can play chess better. I think you are stupid to compete with that, don"t do that! So, this, we always do things we are good at.
马斯克：人比计算机哪些方面比较强，会不会发生这样的情况？
Elon:Sure, okay well why don"t you give me an example of something that humans are better than a computer at, and then let"s see if that happens.
马云：计算机只是人类创造的聪明的工具之一。计算机是聪明的，但是人类今后会创造更多的工具，会比计算机聪明更多，这是我的看法。
Jack:Well, humans, computer is only one of the clever tools that human created, and computers are clever, but there will be more tools that human beings will create, much clever than computers. That"s my view.
马斯克：对于人工智能，我的看法是，说到底你可以推进人工智能来解决问题，让人们有更多的自由度。有最多自由度的就是现实。比如下跳棋是很容易解决的，用传统的软件计算机就可以解决的，这别没有什么挑战。可以说下跳棋有完整的解决方案，几乎不可能赢，每一个套路都已经知道了。然后就有象棋，自由度比跳棋高很多，但是也是自由度数量级比较低的游戏。之后到了围棋，自由度比象棋高很多，所以我们不断的在跳跃自由度，数量级在不断的上升，智能的数量级也在不断的上升，可以完全模拟人的各个方面。
有人说现在我们就活在一种模拟当中，有人开玩笑说，如果生活就是一种游戏，那么大家有什么看法呢？我觉得我们的图象很好，情节也非常复杂，但是要让一个人重生获得完全的意识可能还要20多年。你讲的出生率我并不担心，大多数人觉得人口太多了，但是这是一种过时的看法。假设人工智能能够带来一个美好的未来，世界在20年后面临的最大问题就是人口的崩溃。20年后最大的问题就是人口的崩溃并不是人口的爆炸，我们可以很清楚的预见20年后人类的情况。人类重生要花20年。
Elon:Okay, well let me tell you my view on AI is essentially, you can view the advancement of AI as solving things with increasing degrees of freedom, so the thing with the most degrees of freedom is reality, but AI is steadily advanced, solving things that have more and more degrees of freedom, so obviously it"s something like checkers, was very easy to solve. That we could solve with classical software, classical computing, not really all that challenging and in fact there is the complete solution for checkers, meaning it is literally every version of checkers is known. And then there"s chess which is also, had many, many more degrees of freedom than checkers, many orders of magnitude more than checkers, but still, I would say a really low order of magnitude. Low degree of freedom game. Then there"s Go! which had many orders of magnitude more degrees of freedom than chess, so it"s really just stepping through orders of magnitude, of degrees of freedom. This is the way to, I think, view the advancement of intelligence. Really, you get to the point where you just completely simulate a person in every way possible, like many people simultaneously.
In fact, I mean obviously there"s a strong argument we"re in a simulation right now. Sort of reminds me of that joke of like, you know if life was a video game what would be the review, and it"s like "Well the graphics are incredible, the plot is confusing, and the re-spawn takes a long time." You know, that"s a video game. That"s life, in a video game. Re-spawn takes 20 years, it takes 20-years to spawn a human being and have them be fully conscious. I"m worried about the birth rate, which you alluded to earlier. Most people think we have like too many people on the planet, but actually this is an outdated view. Assuming that AI is fine, that there"s a benevolent future with AI, I think the biggest problem the world will face in 20 years is population collapse. Collapse. I want to emphasize this. The biggest issue in 20 years will be population collapse. Not explosion, collapse. It"s very easy to see what the world will look like in 20 years, because humans have a 20 year boot sequence, so like: Who was born last year? Okay, now you know what the world will look like in 20 years. It"s that easy.
马云：我觉得这是很容易预测的，我同意人口的问题是一个巨大的挑战。中国14亿人听起来很多，但是今后20年这会给中国带来巨大的问题，人口会下降，人口下降的速度会增加。加速崩溃。
Jack:I absolutely agree with that the population problem is going to facing huge challenge. 1.4 billion people in China, it sounds a lot, but I think next 20 years will see this thing will bring big trouble to China, and the population decreasing of the whole, the speed of population decreasing is going to speed up. It could collapse.
马斯克：有人反驳说会有移民，从哪里移过来呢？还要去火星，火星也需要有人去住，现在那里没有人，现在只有一些机器人在那里。
Elon:Accelerating collapse. The common rebuttal is, well what about immigration? From where? You know.Mars needs people, you know. There"s zero people there right now, it"s a machine planet - there"s only robots there.
马云：这是我们需要特别注意的，我们需要更多时间有新的孩子出生。
关于另外一个问题，在我的公司，有秩序、有逻辑的事情，机器总是能够做得很好，如果没有秩序或者逻辑，人类可以做得很好。你爱某些人基本上没有理由，没有任何道理，但是如果恨一个人，当我想要在一些人身上做一些坏事情就有逻辑了，一旦有逻辑AI可以比你做得很好。
Jack:This is something that we should pay special attention, that"s why the 80 million new babies born in China, only like 1% or something, we should spend more time treat life people.
But also, I think about the AI, there"s another thing which Elon, I...in my company, in our company, AI, Alibaba Intelligence, we think, with things with order, with things with logic, machine can always do better, AI can do better. But things without order, without logic, human being can do better. For example, when you love someone there"s no reason normally. I just love him, I just love her. I have no reason. But when I hate somebody, when I wanna do bad things on somebody, there"s logic. When there"s logic, AI can do better. What we do on our Ant Finance, we teach machine all the bad things that bad guys want to do. Machine can learn quickly and arrest all the bad guys we need to. But when you want to do good things, not necessary.
马斯克：AI本来就是爱。
Elon:AI means love.
马云：你说得很对，AI世界当中，AI如果能够带来爱的话，以前如果你是一个成功的人士必须情商和智商都高，未来想要在世界上生存下来必须有LQ，就是爱的智商要高，不然在人工智能时代没有办法生存下来。
Jack:That"s absolutely right, so that is why the world, if the AI can bring love, which I called it in the past, if you wanna be a successful person you have to be EQ and IQ, right? In the future, if you want to survive in this world, you have to be the LQ, the Q of love. That"s important too, otherwise you cannot survive that.
马斯克：我非常喜欢你的回答。
Elon:I agree that love is the answer of many songs about love.
关键词：生命
马云：生命或者人类与机器，或者想要讲讲汽车自动驾驶，想要说哪个？
Jack:Well I"ve picked up the final one, another topic.
马斯克：我选生命。
Elon:This feels like one of those steps in a video game where you"ve got to like pick a path, a choice. I choose life.
马云：在人工智能帮助下人类寿命会有多长，人工智能可以帮助环境可持续发展吗？
Jack:Okay, life. So how much longer do you think people can live for with the help of AI. Can AI help with environmental sustainability? Can you...
马斯克：人类可以解决环境可持续发展的问题，我认为这并不是容易的事情。但是我觉得这是一个完全可以实现的对未来的预言，我们必须采取大量行动，同时持续这样的势头，实现环境可持续性。环境可持续发展方面中国是世界领导者，非常令人惊叹。世界上大概一半的电动车都是在中国制造的，这是过去几年的数字。现在并不是已经可以骄傲自满了，人类可以并且会解决可持续发展的问题。
如果我们能够做神经连接的话，我相信年龄已经不太重要了，可以把状态储存下来，像你把一个游戏保存下来一样。我们可以把生物的衰老问题解决，如果要去改变DNA的话，就是一个时间的问题。人们会不会愿意去改DNA，这是要思考的。很有可能人类会反响很好，如果真要延长寿命的话要去改变DNA，但不知道是不是应该去做这件事情。
Elon:I think, first of all humans will solve environmental sustainability. I do not mean to suggest complacency, or that we just take it easy, in fact this is a self-fulfilling or unfulfilling prophecy. We must take immediate and dramatic action, and continue the momentum towards environmental sustainability. And China is actually the world leader in this, in fact I"m not sure how well it is known outside of China just how much China is the world leader in environmental sustainability. It"s extremely impressive, I mean I think half of all the electric cars in the world were made in China last year or something like that, so... you know, I don"t mean to suggest complacency, but I do think humans can and will solve sustainability.
If we can do the neurolink, age will not matter that much. You should simply save your state, and restore your state, like a saved game, essentially. Something very close to that. I do think we can solve biological aging, if we really wanted to. You"d have to make DNA changes but it"s, we"re obviously just on a clock. All organisms are. You can take a fruit fly, for example, and you could give it, have it do daily yoga and have a very healthy diet and it"s still going to only live for three weeks, maybe four weeks. So, environmental factors are relatively minor for extending life. You have to change the DNA, and so the question is: "Will people be okay with changing the DNA?" That"s the thing about extending life. And probably people are a little bit reticent about that, but that"s essentially the thing that needs to occur to extend life. You"ve got to stop the DNA clock somehow. I don"t know if we should work on this or not. I think, frankly, I think it"s probably a good thing that we do eventually die. There"s a saying in physics, like, even physicists, which are generally quite objective, is like: "Old physicists don"t change their mind, they just die." So, maybe it"s good to have this life cycle.
马云：我觉得AI人工智能完全可以帮助我们实现环境可持续性，当人们对自己有更好了解的时候，人们会变得更加明智更加聪明。聪明的人知道想要什么东西，以及如何实现。而真正智慧的人知道不想要的是什么。当人类会使用人工智能时，可以更好的了解自己，我觉得也会有很多方法。人们可以住在一个健康的地球上，并且保护一个健康的地球。
为什么我想要待在地球上，想要在地球上工作，想要做所有的事情帮助地球变得更好，如果到外太空听上去很不错。如果我们能够把资源都花在地球上，比如从海洋当中取出垃圾，这比去外星更难，人工智能可以帮助我们实现这样的目标解决问题。
第二，人类可以有更好的生活，生活得更长。我们需要的是活得更加健康，就是要更好的理解自己大部分的疾病是由什么造成的，其实都是由我们行为造成的。我百分之百确定人们会活得更长，更加健康，但是并不一定会生活得更加快乐。如果你要快乐的话，我们要关注的是价值观、我们的愿景和我们的任务，同时要有一个梦想。人们非常喜欢技术，对技术有幻想，我觉得技术应该和梦想共生，并不是技术改变我们的世界，而是背后的梦想真正改变了我们的世界。
我希望我们能把这个世界变得更好，帮助74亿人活得更好、更加健康，这就是世界的本质所在。我相信我们将会非常快乐的工作。我很喜欢特斯拉的产品，让世界变得更加干净和清洁没有噪声，而且技术又非常好，非常高兴你能把工厂设在中国，我们也需要做更多的事情改变我们的世界，改善我们的地球，保证人们关爱家人，关爱自己的健康，让人们活得更加快乐。同时也要相信我们，相信人类，相信年轻一代。我们今天要采取负责任的态度，但是我们不能够为未来找到所有解决方案，人类犯错也是一件好事。人类如果能够从错误当中学习也是一件好事，人类最后的死亡和消亡也是一件好事。
Jack:Well, I think AI can definitely help the environmental sustainability. And when human beings know themselves better, human beings will be smarter and will be wiser. The difference between collective people and smart people, or wise people, smart people know what you want, and how you can get it. Wise people know what he doesn"t want, so when human beings use an artificial intelligence, they will understand themselves better and I think there will be millions of ways people will live in a healthy earth and protect a health earth.
The reason why I wanna stay in this earth, I wanna work on this earth, I wanna do anything I can to help this earth do better... going to space is great, but if we can spend our resources just to focus on helping pick up the garbage from the oceans, that thing is more difficult than going to Mars. But AI can help us achieve that, and solve the problems.
And second, human beings can live better, can live longer, but what we need is not only live longer, we want to live healthier. How can we live healthier? It"s to understand ourselves better. Most of the diseases are caused by our behavior, so I think I"m 100% sure people will live longer, people will live healthier, but may not necessarily live happier. If you want to be happier, human beings should focus on value, vision, mission, and always have the dreams. And I don"t want people left to college and put their dreams on the technology. I think the technology should be with dreams, it"s not technology that will change the world, it"s the dreams behind the technology that change the world.
So my hope is that anything we can do to improve this world, to help the 7.4 billion people live better and live healthier, this is all about our world and I think we will be working very happily, because I love your product Tesla, making the world cleaner and no noise. I"m happy you have the factory in China, and I think we need to do more things to improve this Earth, improve this world and make sure people are happier and care more about the family, people care about their health, that"s all we should do and trust us. Trust the human beings, and trust young people. Let"s take responsibility for today, lets not take away all the solutions for tomorrow. It"s great that human beings make mistakes, it"s great that human beings learn from mistakes, it"s great to die.
马斯克：我觉得你说的是对的，我们要为意识长久的存在而奋斗。
Elon:Fight for the light of consciousness.
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